Terry Newman: Trudeau struts, Liberal plotters sit down

After a tense three-and-a-half hour caucus meeting Wednesday, discussing whether or not they should be fighting Trudeau’s leadership due to his ever-decreasing popularity, Liberal MPs emerged declaring the fight was, indeed, needed — against Pierre Poilievre.

Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith emerged to chat cordially with reporters. At one point, he said that trust needs to be restored. When pressed by reporters as to whose trust has to be restored, the MP said his message in the room was two-fold: the prime minister has to listen to the frustrations of caucus members and incorporate changes moving forward, and that his colleagues need to turn the knives outwards, not inwards, and focus on taking the fight to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Well, that clears up everything then — except it doesn’t.

Despite Trudeau’s peacock strut and insistence, before slinking up the stairway out of reach of reporters, that the “Liberal party is strong and united” — all is obviously not well and resolved in the Liberal caucus.

Sources have told the National Post that 50 to 60 MPs spoke during the caucus meeting, with half asking Trudeau to leave and giving him until Oct. 28 to make his decision. We certainly wouldn’t have guessed that from his strut.

Despite the clear dissatisfaction some Liberal MPs have with Trudeau, most still appear to be waiting on the sidelines for something to be announced that might appease them.

Wayne Long, one of the 20 dissenters, said the meeting was “the most meaningful, direct and blunt caucus I’ve seen in nine years,” but he also made it clear he still wasn’t convinced that Trudeau could win the next election, hinting that if things did not change soon, choices will be made by dissenting members as to whether they, not Trudeau, stay or go.

Before entering the meeting, Newfoundland MP Ken McDonald told reporters on the stairs of the House of Commons that he was waiting to see what the prime minister was going to do, and that he wasn’t sure whether or not anyone would leave the caucus. When asked whether there was a chance McDonald himself could be kicked out, as a dissenting MP, he said, “Well, there’s always that possibility when you’re rebutting something the prime minister is trying to do or rebutting his leadership.”

In response to Immigration Minister Marc Miller calling caucus members’ dissent “a garbage move” — which is strange, some might say, toxic behaviour from a cabinet minister in a party that claims to be all things good and just and non-toxic — McDonald said, “Well, none of us are happy to be called garbage.”

Somehow, I doubt that members of the British parliament would ever put up with their prime minister behaving like a king when his ministers fail to fall in line. It’s old hat for the Brits, who have the same parliamentary system as us, to band together to toss their leaders aside whenever they see fit. When scandal broke out over former prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to throw an inopportune COVID garden party, no qualms were made. The party as whole caucus is king, rather than one minister.

It’s also not insignificant that none of the dissenting Liberal MPs appear to be directly concerned about winning the trust of Canadians, only with saving their own necks.

Recent polls putting Conservatives ahead of Liberals have been devastating, with Conservatives leading, according to one aggregator, with 42.5 per cent support to the Liberals’ 23.2 per cent. A “grassroots” petition reportedly from Liberal party members at large also emerged, dramatically describing the situation as “code red” and an “existential crisis” for the party. Liberals are on life support, and since Trudeau so far refuses to leave, MPs and party members in general have been reduced to either of two choices: suck it up or brandish their scabbards.

But it seems that scabbard-brandishing will have to wait until Liberal MPs’ patience runs completely out, as most of them simply didn’t appear to have the heart to fight Trudeau, or perhaps they feel like they owe him something. Liberal MP John McKay told reporters today that the decision to leave is Trudeau’s alone.

This might be a popular sentiment on the left. While not MPs, Christy Clark and David Lametti are on record suggesting that Trudeau has somehow “earned the right” to decide on his own whether he stays or goes.

Except, this shouldn’t be the case in a parliamentary system where all members are equal. At any point in time, members of the Liberal caucus should be able to oust Trudeau for a new leader.

Strangely, in 2021, Liberal MPs voted unanimously against adopting Reform Act rules, which would have empowered them to remove Trudeau as leader. I bet at least 20 MPs in Trudeau’s caucus are now regretting that move. All parties should take note — Justin Trudeau has made it clear that this rule is necessary to control the dominance of one “prime” minister over an entire caucus.

The Liberals could still make it untenable for Justin Trudeau to stay. A secret ballot vote could be used to convince him to take a walk in the leaves. It doesn’t seem like it will happen, though. It seems like some kind of carrot has been dangled over the caucus’ heads. Whether it’s tempting enough to shut down a revolt is yet to be seen.

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